Financial uncertainty. If you read the news and feel like hiding then gold and silver will be spiking as well.
It will be back. When the inevitable AI bubble bursts and people realise for instance that the entire GDP growth from the US in first half 2025 is only in AI stuff then gold & silver will go high again.
There are many factors. Some are still the billions of dollars given out since the Covid years, Trump's erratic economic decisions, crypto crashes, globally reaching war and strive consequences as well as the mentioned multiple bubbles ready to burst.
So many people flee in the supposed safety of shiny metal.
On a scale of the past few weeks: the current US government shutdown, the ridiculous (and increasing!) amount of debt by the US, and growing worries about the independence of the US Federal Reserve
On a scale of the past few years (since 2006):
growing demand from gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs)
Russia and China, but other countries as well, are buying up gold because they don't trust the dollar or don't want to trade in it. Gold is also a way around sanctions.
It's a confluence of reasons why the prices of precious metals have increased so much recently. Most of them have already been mentioned by others in this thread, but the initial reason i.m.h.o. is that the Biden administration froze Russian assets after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The Russian assets are still frozen and now national banks of rogue nations are hoarding precious metals by the tons, due to the Trump way of conducting diplomacy.
Actually, precious metals in general - platinum and palladium have also spiked the last six months. One could argue that precious metals that are used as payment to circumvent sanctions would not be traded via the exchange in London - which is exactly the reason of the spike in prices, since there is a shortage of (physical) precious metals in the London exchange.
So the basic opinion is that rouge nations are using it to avoid sanctions. Seems like if they were buying it by the tons, it would be even higher?
National banks of some “rogue nations” ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rogue_state ) have hoarded precious metals by the tons for the last 10-15 years. The price of gold has had a steady rise in value since at least 2018. Sanctions have only been in place for around three years.
The price is always determined by supply and demand on the exchange in London, even though an increasing volume is being traded directly between states circumventing sanctions, hence not having a direct influence on the official “spot” value of the precious metal. There is an indirect influence though on the “spot” price when there are shortages on the exchange.
Dang, that would explain why it was so hard to find the last couple years. I wanted to buy some when it was $2000 but my supplier said he couldn’t get any at that time. I regret not looking harder.
Taking a break from swapping for a while, but still interested in pre 1799 Spanish coins, I will make time for that!
Rise of populists, bad leaders, global recessions and instability, over reliance on internet and computers that are constantly hacked and breaking down worthless paper currencies, climate change - people worried about global stability. Global bad actors and rogue states.
I think its a correction and will continue going up, ride the wave I say, and then dump it once certain horrible and abhorrent people and regimes end.
I love coins. Especially silver, gold and anything really old.
Member of the Royal Numismatic Society of New Zealand and the Auckland Numismatic Society
I think its a correction and will continue going up, ride the wave I say, and then dump it once Donald Duck Trump is gone.
Trump is a symptom but not a cause. The root cause i.m.h.o. is the unwillingness of Americans to pay taxes, which also means to pay their national debt. The budget shutdowns are also a symptom of this and is getting worse for every year. It does not look like this will change when Trump is gone.
Precious metals have always been the go-to in times of uncertainty. Unfortunately, the USA is the biggest driver in the global price of precious metals. So, uncertainty and turmoil in the USA leads to increase in the global price of precious metals, and other countries which are more stable still have to suffer.
Precious metals have always been the go-to in times of uncertainty. Unfortunately, the USA is the biggest driver in the global price of precious metals. So, uncertainty and turmoil in the USA leads to increase in the global price of precious metals, and other countries which are more stable still have to suffer.
True, but holding physical gold and silver only very recently became that popular in the US, mainly due to Trump.
Exchange-traded funds (ETFs or paper gold/silver - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exchange-traded_fund ) for the last many decades used to be the standard mode of investing in precious metals, but some investors seem to have lost faith in whether they can actually get the gold or silver delivered physically if they wish.
Some of the ETFs own physical precious metals, while other ETFs own precious metals futures contracts ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Futures_contract ). It's a welknown fact that there is much more paper gold and silver than physical gold and silver in ETFs.
I'm not an economist by any means, but try to keep up with events. It's my feeling that the dramatic increase in gold is partly due to quiet buying by the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, Saudi Arabia, and now several others). I believe their goal is to replace the global dominance of the petro-dollar with a currency backed by gold.
It's also my belief that the price of silver has been artificially manipulated to keep it low; it being the most important strategic metal. I think that eventually a more balanced GSR (gold to silver ratio) will emerge. I last bought silver about a month ago at $41.10. I would like to buy more, but will wait for the price to stabilize over several weeks.
the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, Saudi Arabia, and now several others). I believe their goal is to replace the global dominance of the petro-dollar with a currency backed by gold.
You may be right, but I think BRICS is a sheep in wolf's clothing. These countries are competitive not cooperative and any collusion between or among them is self-serving and wont last. Cant yet say how that will affect precious metals, could go either way.
I'm not an economist by any means, but try to keep up with events. It's my feeling that the dramatic increase in gold is partly due to quiet buying by the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, Saudi Arabia, and now several others). I believe their goal is to replace the global dominance of the petro-dollar with a currency backed by gold.
It's also my belief that the price of silver has been artificially manipulated to keep it low; it being the most important strategic metal. I think that eventually a more balanced GSR (gold to silver ratio) will emerge. I last bought silver about a month ago at $41.10. I would like to buy more, but will wait for the price to stabilize over several weeks.
Actually, it's South Africa, not Saudi Arabia, the latter is not a member of BRICS.
I can only agree that BRICS is trying to create an alternative to the petro-dollar, and one could argue that Trump is delivering a lot of arguments as to why that could be a promising idea. I agree with your belief on the price of silver.
You may be right, but I think BRICS is a sheep in wolf's clothing. These countries are competitive not cooperative and any collusion between or among them is self-serving and wont last. Cant yet say how that will affect precious metals, could go either way.
One could argue exactly the same about the Trump administration. Trump has thrown a lot of “dead weight” over board lately, cooperation that was accumulated over the last 80 years. At some point the Europeans will begin to act accordingly. Who knows, perhaps Trump has BRICS aspirations? (to be honest, I've stopped being flabbergasted about anything coming out of the White House).
Okay, my last direct comment on politics, back to precious metals. 🪙
Things have calmed down this week and it looks like the metals are settling.
Gold stable in the $4,100 - $4,150 range per ounce (NZ $7,400)
Silver around $48 - $49 per ounce (NZ $84 - $86).
Gold is about 8% down from its peak and silver a good 10 - 11% down from its peak.
Prices are still too high, a Morgan dollar is around $66 of silver and a British sterling silver halfcrown is $35 in silver.
Even a bitsy 3d coin is like $4 and a silver dime around $6 (Pesos de Nueva Zelando).
I think America has closed for the week or will soon (NZ has weird time zones, its already 12pm on Saturday lunchtime) and the prices will settle or I suspect starting climbing again next week.
I bought most of my gold in 2023 and early 2024 when gold was like $1,900 - $2,400 an ounce, so I am still ahead.
My best investment was the Palladium I bought in April for $5k (Pesos de NZ) and now its about $9k.
I love coins. Especially silver, gold and anything really old.
Member of the Royal Numismatic Society of New Zealand and the Auckland Numismatic Society
Shouldn't meddle with politics here, but here are my two cents as a BRICS native.
From what I've read along the year, it's mostly China who bought a lot of gold. And other countries too, to diversify their reserves, but not on the same pace.
And the plan for a BRICS currency of it's own like the euro is mostly a fantasy for now, the most realistic plan is more independence than dominance.
The thing is that Lula wants the trade with the other BRICS countries to be made with the local currencies instead of using dollar.
For example: A trade between China and Brazil to be done with a direct conversion between reais and yuans without having to convert reais to dollars and only then to yuans.
Basically cutting the intermediary. Just cutting costs, mr. Trump should be aware of what this is after all, as mr. Musk spent months talking only about spending cuts on his ear.
And I've read somewhere else that there's not enough gold out there today to the world be able to return to a age of gold-backed currencies.
…And back to the subject, let's wait and see if this week's price drop is just a temporary thing or the next normal for a while.
Precious metals have always been the go-to in times of uncertainty. Unfortunately, the USA is the biggest driver in the global price of precious metals. So, uncertainty and turmoil in the USA leads to increase in the global price of precious metals, and other countries which are more stable still have to suffer.
+1
This has been my observations. Back in 2014-2105 I felt that the “Occupy Now” & “Arab Spring” protests revealed that people (in general) from democratic nations (or nations who sought some type of democracy) were waking up to how ridiculous the “billionaire's club” was (in the way it was controlling/manipulating the global economy). Many of my economist friends were amused that gold & silver hadn't taken off (partly b/c people were becoming aware how billionaires were manipulating most democratic nations) & partly b/c things were unstable yet gold (& silver) remained stable (low compared to the flimsy USD).
At that time, a president like Trump was the furthest thing from my mind. If somebody had told me that there would be a US president who would be chummy with North Korea/Russia but hostile to Canada & most Western nations (& throw the entire world into a global trade war), I would have been flabbergasted. But (luckily) a good buddy of mine (an economist) suggested that a president with his rogue agenda was possible & he suggested both gold & Bitcoin were completely under appreciated & an excellent investment opportunity (b/c they were severely undervalued). Since the US was a stable administration at the time (2013), I took up his advice on gold & by 2014 bought about 20 oz of the precious metals when it hovered slightly around $1000 USD/oz. I only wish I had bought more gold but don't believe that it will go much lower than the dips we've seen. I can see gold going to $5000 with the current erratic US policies which change minute by minute (& the MAGA crowd who seem completely detached from reality & so bent on pushing a protectionist/ancient economic agenda which has never worked out as intended).
Looks like the American markets have closed leaving the prices for the weekend at.
Gold - $4,114 an ounce, Silver $48.60 an ounce
Agree about Trump, China etc driving prices up and global instability being a factor. The ceasefire in Gaza is razor thin, Ukraine/Russia still going on and we never heard what they found at Fort Knox (The rumours, that some or all of their gold is gone).
My country - New Zealand, does not even have a gold reserve, we sold it off in 1990. That is probably why our economy is so bad.
My own gold holdings are around 525 grams (475 grams coined gold as I have a sovereign and half sovereign coming) and 45 grams in Perth Mint gold bars (We can't add bullion bars on Numista and fair enough, they are not coins). The final 4 - 5 grams is a medallet not listed here for Victorias diamond jubilee, which was 6 - 7 grams of 18 carat gold. I bought nearly all of it between Dec 2023 and May 2024. I only bought the gold bars, the Black bull ounce and the 2 coins I mentioned in 2025 and unlikely to buy anymore for a while.
All I know is through most of 2024 that 430 grams of gold was around $55 - $60k NZD and now my 475 grams is like $105k NZD, so you can not say the stuff has increased wildly in value over a short time.
I love coins. Especially silver, gold and anything really old.
Member of the Royal Numismatic Society of New Zealand and the Auckland Numismatic Society
You may be right, but I think BRICS is a sheep in wolf's clothing. These countries are competitive not cooperative …
One could argue exactly the same about the Trump administration. Trump has thrown a lot of “dead weight” over board lately, cooperation that was accumulated over the last 80 years.
I do say exactly the same about the Trump administration, and Trump's competitive policies are exactly what this country needs.
The old world order served us well for a few decades, in the ashes of WWII and the colonial era, then we tried to play nice with other countries and sold our collective souls in the process. Time for a new world order. Other countries (like the BRICS members) are chasing US superiority, and some country, maybe China, will eventually take the lead, but at least Trump is trying to forestall that day.
Remember, those BRICS countries are NOT friends at all, and they have their own terrible human rights policies, and they dont sit around campfires singing Kumbaya like Biden and Obama. No, they are plotting total world domination 24/7 and they will turn on each other in a bloody heartbeat. Don't pretend otherwise.
Meanwhile, remember that Trump didnt create economic or political chaos, the world has always been a circus, we just choose to remember bits of history that feed our biases.
PS: the last few weeks and months have indeed witnessed wild swings in silver prices, but, when adjusted for inflation, silver is well below its all-time high. If price swings and inflation are any indication of chaos (or what some people call “uncertainty”) this is nothing compared to the 1970s. Remember mortgage rates at 15%, Nixon Shock, etc etc.
All I know is through most of 2024 that 430 grams of gold was around $55 - $60k NZD and now my 475 grams is like $105k NZD, so you can not say the stuff has increased wildly in value over a short time.
Gold is a store of value ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Store_of_value ), so what's interesting about gold is not the price but the purchasing power. Somewhere else on the interweb I read, that one ounce of gold could buy a Savile Row bespoke tailored suit in the 1970s and it still can after 50 years.
Yes, and QFS is a load of bullsh*t terminology strung together by weird crypto tech bro's in the hope of getting their hands on money. Preferably that of you and me, without ever paying it back.
Yes, and QFS is a load of bullsh*t terminology strung together by weird crypto tech bro's in the hope of getting their hands on money. Preferably that of you and me, without ever paying it back.
I suppose the current government shutdown in the states isn't helping people's confidence in the economy, so more investment in precious metals.
I know that gold and silver is well up, but what about copper? I'm reroofing my house at the moment and our spouting we're replacing is all copper, so it would help me if the price is quite high.
Copper is also up , relative to recent years. Was in the $3-4 range for a long time, now marching up through $5, and no reason to think that won't continue.
Kitco has this five year chart.
Jamais l'or n'a perdu la plus petite occasion de se montrer stupide. -Balzac
Much central bank bullion buying happens in November, regardless of price. This includes some of the biggest buyers coming from the EU, eg. Poland. USA still holds the worlds largest reserves of gold by a country mile, but has not sold or bought for a long time (decades I think).
For the purpose of state finances, USA federal reserve gold was valued at $20.67/oz in 1933 when it was confiscated from the American public, and in 1934 raised to $35/oz, providing liquidity by devaluing the dollar. The people of the USA were only allowed to own gold again in 1975, after USD/gold decoupling. $35 is still the legal value of US reserve gold to this day. Given $38T in debt going to the moon on a hockystick, and the Fed heading to Quantitive Easing, liquidity is again a looming disaster for the US economy. Many analysts are suggesting that federal reserve gold, same as in 1934, could be adjusted to $4000+ thus de-valuing the dollar and providing liquidity. This de-valuation post Bretton-Woods will now however negatively impact third party nations holding USD as a global reserve currency, or US goverment bonds as a store of value. They will be powerless to prevent this loss of value and won't get the benefits of liquidity. With no viable replacement to the USD as a global reserve currency, what should independent states do to protect their interests and the interests of their people? To follow is my opinion:
China, the worlds most diverse trading partner, is not only the largest gold producer, but also the largest central bank bullion buyer. It is actively integrating decentralised bullion storage infrastructure into it's “Belt and Road Initiative”, which will facilitate bullion backed trade in diverse local currencies without needing to physically transport it. BRICS/SCO and probably ASEAN alliance members (the majority of the global population) will likely be at a preferencial advantage in this competitive trade network, with the global center of financial and military gravity shifting towards China and/or Russia. For open market bullion prices, as the indicators are already telling us, this only leaves one direction open for the next decade or so…
To understand, I believe that we must observe reality objectively in the light of history and without the blinkers of ego or belief in manifest destiny. I find terms such as “Rouge States” as politically offensive as “Sh!thole countries” (directed at the one that I was born into), and feel that it should be relegated to the same place as racism on a forum such as this.
If the current situation corrects, which it may well, then gold will deflate, possibly back to what was quite recently considered a normal rational level, say $1800.
My money is on that not happening, I am sorry to say.
Jamais l'or n'a perdu la plus petite occasion de se montrer stupide. -Balzac
A previous poster made the observation of the value of a Saville row suite vs an oz of gold back in the day now again being at parity. Some commentators argue that the correction of the gold value has only just started and has been artificially low for a long time. This makes sense if you consider that Fiat currency is a very new experiment in global economic management, and faith is running out. Most that I listen to say that the rate of increase is not a cause for celebration, but rather a sombre indicator. The former Singapore FM said it well; you can't predict the weather, but you know what is happening with the climate.
I was curious, and found the Fed raised the price of gold to $42.22 in 1973, where it remains.
In trying to keep up international trends, I find quite a few pundits spouting all manner of advice and predictions. It becomes a challenge of separating the wheat from the chaff. For what it's worth, I consider citkane's insights in the former group.
I was curious, and found the Fed raised the price of gold to $42.22 in 1973, where it remains.
In trying to keep up international trends, I find quite a few pundits spouting all manner of advice and predictions. It becomes a challenge of separating the wheat from the chaff. For what it's worth, I consider citkane's insights in the former group.
I found that interesting
ladies is like a weird creature, you know, they don't never like you
Given choppy bullion pricing weather ahead, it would be nice if the Numista website could maybe evolve by expressing the value estimate as [bullion value + numistic value]. This would give a better understanding of the value of a coin (as a coin) instead of a bullion investment instrument.
This logic could maybe extend backwards in time, ie. auction price at given date = [bullion value at date + numistic value]
If any website admins read this and like the idea, please contact me. I contribute to FOSS projects, but will happily contibute to implement this for Numista as best I can (gratis).
In the 1990's I bought two slabbed gold coins. While they have gained in value, the numismatic value has dropped to 15-20 percent above melt. So these are not much better than bullion.
I think the disparity will eventually even out. Perhaps this period will be looked back upon as a golden buying opportunity.
But the challenge becomes predicting what gold will do long term. If it continues to rise, the disparity will only increase.
Many analysts are suggesting that federal reserve gold, same as in 1934, could be adjusted to $4000+ thus de-valuing the dollar and providing liquidity. This de-valuation post Bretton-Woods will now however negatively impact third party nations holding USD as a global reserve currency, or US goverment bonds as a store of value. They will be powerless to prevent this loss of value and won't get the benefits of liquidity. With no viable replacement to the USD as a global reserve currency, what should independent states do to protect their interests and the interests of their people? To follow is my opinion:
China, the worlds most diverse trading partner, is not only the largest gold producer, but also the largest central bank bullion buyer. It is actively integrating decentralised bullion storage infrastructure into it's “Belt and Road Initiative”, which will facilitate bullion backed trade in diverse local currencies without needing to physically transport it. BRICS/SCO and probably ASEAN alliance members (the majority of the global population) will likely be at a preferencial advantage in this competitive trade network, with the global center of financial and military gravity shifting towards China and/or Russia. For open market bullion prices, as the indicators are already telling us, this only leaves one direction open for the next decade or so…
Just thinking out loud now:
When the majority of the market realises this, I guess the de-valuation of the US Dollar will happen in sheer anticipation of an adjustment of the federal reserve gold. The elephant in the room is what no politician yet has addressed: Will the US be able to honor their national debt (which is in US Dollar, not gold)? A hefty de-valuation of the US Dollar would also decrease the value of many pension indexfonds owned by foreigners.
I was born in South Africa, and remember the paper money from childhood; “I promise to pay the bearer x Rand worth of fine bullion”, signed by the governer of the SA reserve bank. This was not long ago in historic terms. From about 2018 onwards I started buying bullion coins as investment, which includes a bulk lot of Dutch silvers gulders (50's and 60's) and small gold sovereigns, ducats amidst other small gold coins from the 19th century. This is where my coin collecting bug started biting, the reality that these coins carried their value with them in peoples pockets, immune from short term political stupidity (until bullion decoupling and Fiat currency dominance).
I don't believe that the USA can, or will default while USD remains the world's reserve currency. This is not likely to change suddenly or imminently. All countries are invested in Fiat and the USD. All countries have to balance the books and they "print" money to provide liquidity and service debt (thus driving inflation). Value is based on faith in the countries ability to service debt (debt to GDP ratio, eg. the Buffet index), or sheer military dominance.
What is likely to happen is that USD will be devalued (probably gold being one of many mechanism), US inflation will spike (which is essentially a stealth tax on the population), and liquidity will open up. What is new however in the Fiat globalised USD world is the scale of impact on non-USA states. It is a form of neo-colonialism where wealth flows to the center of power from subservient states without direct benefit to the people of those places. This will directly impact the value of things like retirement funds, US equities and bonds for these people.
Currency and trade wars are not new. They are a part of the roots of the last two world wars and further back. Gulders to Ducats to Pounds to Dollars as global trade currency. I believe that reading the world in cold geopolitical terms becomes understandable in this light. It helps explain the looming and active hot wars outside of propaganda.
I find terms such as “Rouge States” as politically offensive as “Sh!thole countries” (directed at the one that I was born into), and feel that it should be relegated to the same place as racism on a forum such as this.
Those two terms are i.m.h.o not in the same “league” politically, but that's just my opinion.
Talking about rogue (not rouge) states, this piece of statistics has always intrigued me:
What is likely to happen is that USD will be devalued (probably gold being one of many mechanism), US inflation will spike (which is essentially a stealth tax on the population), and liquidity will open up. What is new however in the Fiat globalised USD world is the scale of impact on non-USA states. It is a form of neo-colonialism where wealth flows to the center of power from subservient states without direct benefit to the people of those places. This will directly impact the value of things like retirement funds, US equities and bonds for these people.
This type and degree of speculation is reductive hogwash: “stealth tax” “neo-colonialism” “without direct benefit…”
@pennyless , thank you for the spelling correction. Russia is ranked 35 in countries by foreign debt held, USA being no 1. I am not sure about domestic debt. It is interesting that the ratio of that debt is increasingly USA debt. Any further insights?
I would agree that if you call me "xyz" it is freedom of speech, but if the most powerful position in the world labels a people “xyz”, it is something else, and has very real impact for those peoples on the world stage. When we perpetuate these labels on a forum, it is not conducive to constructive debate and improving a view of what is happening in the global economy.
@TCon , I don't mind you calling my opinion (which I have clearly indicated as opinion) anything that you wish, but it would be helpful if you backed it up with a constructive counter argument.
@pennyless , thank you for the spelling correction. Russia is ranked 35 in countries by foreign debt held, USA being no 1. I am not sure about domestic debt. It is interesting that the ratio of that debt is increasingly USA debt. Any further insights?
I would agree that if you call me "xyz" it is freedom of speech, but if the most powerful position in the world labels a people “xyz”, it is something else, and has very real impact for those peoples on the world stage. When we perpetuate these labels on a forum, it is not conducive to constructive debate and improving a view of what is happening in the global economy.
On your first paragraph, I think you missed the point entirely. Russia does no longer own any US treasury bonds (the only country on the list) and has decreased their ownership to nil since 2014. On your second point, I am against censorship and use the term “rogue state” in it's appropriate context, not as a derogatory term (I actually think that Russia is a rogue state). The other word, though, is not constructive.
Aha! Thanks for the correction again, I was reading your chart backwards. That makes sense now. China has also been disinvesting in USA bonds, despite still being one of the largest holders ( I think Japan is the largest, but please do your own fact checking). This is very dangerous for the US economy, if bond buyers dry up the bonds will need to yield higher interest to be attractive, and servicing the debt will overtake GDP, if it has not already. As an interesting aside, this kind of thing happened to New York city in the 70's. The banks just failed to turn up at the bond auction, and a "new deal" was struck with the banks around property tax relief, which empowered the rise a certain man that has got a lot of recent media attention.
On the matter of labels, I look at things differently. I was raised from a position of minority privilidge, power and fear of external threat. The people who are now recognised as peace makers and bringers of freedom were labelled as terrorists. As an interesting factoid, look up for yourself when Nelson Mandela was delisted from the US terrorism watchlist.
On the matter of labels, I look at things differently. I was raised from a position of minority privilidge, power and fear of external threat. The people who are now recognised as peace makers and bringers of freedom were labelled as terrorists. As an interesting factoid, look up for yourself when Nelson Mandela was delisted from the US terrorism watchlist.
That is a strange argument for censorship. I think we have reached the end of our discussion.
Much central bank bullion buying happens in November, regardless of price. This includes some of the biggest buyers coming from the EU, eg. Poland. USA still holds the worlds largest reserves of gold by a country mile, but has not sold or bought for a long time (decades I think).
For the purpose of state finances, USA federal reserve gold was valued at $20.67/oz in 1933 when it was confiscated from the American public, and in 1934 raised to $35/oz, providing liquidity by devaluing the dollar. The people of the USA were only allowed to own gold again in 1975, after USD/gold decoupling. $35 is still the legal value of US reserve gold to this day. Given $38T in debt going to the moon on a hockystick, and the Fed heading to Quantitive Easing, liquidity is again a looming disaster for the US economy. Many analysts are suggesting that federal reserve gold, same as in 1934, could be adjusted to $4000+ thus de-valuing the dollar and providing liquidity. This de-valuation post Bretton-Woods will now however negatively impact third party nations holding USD as a global reserve currency, or US goverment bonds as a store of value. They will be powerless to prevent this loss of value and won't get the benefits of liquidity. With no viable replacement to the USD as a global reserve currency, what should independent states do to protect their interests and the interests of their people? To follow is my opinion:
China, the worlds most diverse trading partner, is not only the largest gold producer, but also the largest central bank bullion buyer. It is actively integrating decentralised bullion storage infrastructure into it's “Belt and Road Initiative”, which will facilitate bullion backed trade in diverse local currencies without needing to physically transport it. BRICS/SCO and probably ASEAN alliance members (the majority of the global population) will likely be at a preferencial advantage in this competitive trade network, with the global center of financial and military gravity shifting towards China and/or Russia. For open market bullion prices, as the indicators are already telling us, this only leaves one direction open for the next decade or so…
To understand, I believe that we must observe reality objectively in the light of history and without the blinkers of ego or belief in manifest destiny. I find terms such as “Rouge States” as politically offensive as “Sh!thole countries” (directed at the one that I was born into), and feel that it should be relegated to the same place as racism on a forum such as this.
As someone who also grew up in the BRIC, but has lived long enough in the western hemisphere that I have a foot in both perspectives, I agree broadly with you. I don’t claim to know every reason why gold goes up or down in value; but when it comes to the US dollar and broadly the “developed” world dominance in the financial and economic sphere, this has been in steady decline since the 1990s. I think it’s caused more upheaval in the last 20yrs or so in the developed world only because that phenomenon is fast approaching critical mass. If you travel to Countries in east and south east Asia, their major metropoles can make large cities on this side of the world look downright provincial; even my hometown, Bombay is changing dramatically before my eyes in my annual visits there.
the dollar now accounts for about 58% of world trade, down from about 80% just 15 years ago. That number will keep going down, probably accelerate as trump, and indeed past US govts have weaponised it, one can argue, quite casually in the last 20yrs or so. Trust stable US actions is what drives the dollars value, but that has been gradually undermined for a while now. So It’s not only “rogue” nations, as some put it, are looking for alternatives, but infact any country with aspirations for a seat at the high table. India is what many western analysts consider the weak link in the BRICS, but even Indian govts have long chafed that Iran was blacklisted and now Russia. The primary discussion in the BRICS imo is figuring out a mechanism to bypass the SWIFT system and the dollar altogether. The discussion primarily centres around local currency swaps and/or SDRs. The mainstream news atleast here in North America will shallowly have to believe they want to build a new currency. of course this is not something that will happen quickly because all countries hold significant USD reserves at the moment, it will be a decades long endeavour, but the fact is it is already happening. At some level this causes the Europeans and the Americans to be on the losing side and naturally in the interim, there will be a flight towards gold as the ultimate hedging tool due to historical human tradition; else gold in itself is mostly useless in its utility unlike copper for instance.
The last few years especially with trump starting in 2016 has undermined not only US credibility, but also that of European countries. The US, because it shows their govt structure & democratic institutions are nowhere as robust as most believed as gospel truth, while European countries seem to be unable to take their own stand without approval from Uncle Sam. Coupled with long time stagnation of innovation and economic prospects in Europe, and the growing insulation of the US, imo this eventually and inevitably will degrade the USD, with gold filling the vacuum of uncertainty till a new world economic order comes to pass. FWIW, I don’t believe the USD will be supplanted by another currency like the RMB; more likely, bilateral and multilateral arrangements will win the day
Yes. I agree broadly with that evaluation. I realised a few years ago that the tides had changed when Naledi Pandor led a diplomatic delegation to the US to promote cooperation, and was challenged by the former US ambassador to SA that “power is power”, and that this determines the rules based order. Relations have been deteriorating since then.
I now watch the HSI and the Nifty Fifty for a broader barometer for shocks to come, but think that bullion is the most direct indicator. What is interesting is that both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump attended the ASEAN summit. It is a bit of a glimmer of hope that diplomacy and healthy market competition can moderate direct confrontation. SE Asia has been good at conflict de-escalation for some time, stuck between a rock and a hard place as they are.
Yes. I agree broadly with that evaluation. I realised a few years ago that the tides had changed when Naledi Pandor led a diplomatic delegation to the US to promote cooperation, and was challenged by the former US ambassador to SA that “power is power”, and that this determines the rules based order. Relations have been deteriorating since then.
I now watch the HSI and the Nifty Fifty for a broader barometer for shocks to come, but think that bullion is the most direct indicator. What is interesting is that both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump attended the ASEAN summit. It is a bit of a glimmer of hope that diplomacy and healthy market competition can moderate direct confrontation. SE Asia has been good at conflict de-escalation for some time, stuck between a rock and a hard place as they are.
Well trump says the US is going to boycott the G20 because RSA is hosting it for obviously spurious reasoning. IMO, that’s simply US not at the table, the world will find its balance without them; there is no choice.
In terms of trump and Xi at the ASEAN/ APEC summits, the optics were not at all good for trump personally, but more importantly, it marked in my mind a very pivotal moment when US overreach has left it vulnerable. Theres no other way than to look at that as the US having to retreat after being caught flat footed in the way it went about the tariffs with China. Even more so given that the US cannot marshal other key countries to its side given that trump sees this as a zero sum game. It’s irreversibly harmed US influence and by extension the dollar.
To be kind, it can't be easy to be the boss in the show and not be able to say “ you're fired!” The ratings will inevitably go down. I will take a show of diplomacy as a glimmer of hope, but will not be naive. Diplomacy now seems to be directed at central Asia and the “stans” to join the Abraham accords.
To maybe focus back to metals, it is interesting that the London Metals Exchange is owned by the Hong Kong Exchange Group since 2012. If any artifical control of pricing had ever existed, as a wild speculation, this could have contributed to its upward trend since then. There seems to have been a nasty litigious series of incidents around the price of nickel.
Here is a bit of a longer view of silver and gold:
And 100 years of gold adjusted for inflation:
If silver remains the traditional latecomer in golds shadow, it will still have a steep hill to climb. Also factor in that silver is an industrial utility metal. The industrial need for gold per unit of weight is much lower.
No idea, but my guess is military. Or silver bullets for vampires. 😁 The data I found for those charts is rather old as well, so I imagine that demand for silver has increased in step with growth in high tech and electronics. The pie charts however illustrate that the induserial demand for silver is higher than that for gold.
It's a really interesting subject, and I did a bit more reading.
Apparently silver is in a lot of things you wouldn't expect outside of electronics;
Medicine (non antibiotic antibiotics, if that makes sense)
Bearings
High voltage switching
Chemical catalyst
Of course, there is still the perennial high quality household goods, such as cutlery and other serving brikabrak. Then there are innovations past and future, like “the thing” that led to RFID, all which rely on silver. If you want to see a use of silver, just look in the mirror.
All good points, and I'm tempted to revise my buy price up to $49, with this dip. But I'm also a victim of procrastination and will likely wait for a further dip.
My nerves are too shot for short term profit trading Spauldingph… I think the long term view works better for people like me with an anxious disposition, so I just ignore the dips and peaks. If I am looking at a price graph, it is normally the 5 year view. I have accrued over many years, so of course it is much easier to do that now.
I agree 100 percent. I am of the same disposition. But at this point, I'm getting a bit concerned about preserving the value of the assets I have. Again, I'm no economist, and have trouble descerning what's true and not.
I tend to trust this forum overall for reliable information.
What I'm getting here is that the us dollar is declining, and everything linked to it will eventually decline as well. This is pretty much all I have. I'm also getting that tangible assets like gold and silver are reliable counters to the manipulated paper transactions of futures contracts and God knows what else.
I am no economist either, nor a fortune teller… All I see is what I see, and that is an over-ripe paw-paw heading for a very fast running fan 😲
For what it's worth, my two cents worth is to get some money out of the banks and spread your risk. Physical possession of bullion is a good one. I do perceive trends towards stability and growth in the world, but unfortunately not in the West. I have spread some of my risk into the HKSE, which is possible from the EU, but I am not sure about the USA. ETF's are another easily accessible possibility, but be very sure about their underlying composition. If you have a pension fund, study it's underlying composition and make decisions about that. Stear well clear of looming market bubbles.
Ha! You mentioned the paw paw, which I happen to grow. As an aside, maybe one in ten of my neighbors have ever heard of it, even though it's the the only large fruit native to North America. I use it with apples to make an interesting cider.
As to your financial insights, everything is compatible with what I consider as reliable. Please continue.
1 x refrigerated paw-paw, about 30% vanilla ice-cream, a quick shot in the blender and you will have the most delicious milkshake. They used to grow in my grandparents back garden in the Eastern Cape (of SA) and are a very fond childhood memory.
Citkane, thanks for that. My own memories of paw-paws were of my dad asking how mine were doing. I regret he never lived to get a proper answer. Frankly, it took a full 30 years for them to mature. In retrospect, I think it was the deer. I eventually put a net over them, and they grew to their present height. I'm getting about ½ bushel a year now. I'm so sorry my dad never got to taste them.
It's also my belief that the price of silver has been artificially manipulated to keep it low; it being the most important strategic metal. I think that eventually a more balanced GSR (gold to silver ratio) will emerge. I last bought silver about a month ago at $41.10. I would like to buy more, but will wait for the price to stabilize over several weeks.
Remember, those BRICS countries are NOT friends at all, and they have their own terrible human rights policies, and they dont sit around campfires singing Kumbaya like Biden and Obama. No, they are plotting total world domination 24/7 and they will turn on each other in a bloody heartbeat. Don't pretend otherwise.
Remember, those BRICS countries are NOT friends at all, and they have their own terrible human rights policies, and they dont sit around campfires singing Kumbaya like Biden and Obama. No, they are plotting total world domination 24/7 and they will turn on each other in a bloody heartbeat. Don't pretend otherwise.
You must be European? Your people invented institutionalized torture and the death penalty, both of which were widely used across Europe for millenia. Your lot got soft but don't let your recent EU policies cloud your history.
Nothing wrong with the death penalty at all. In fact, we should use it a lot more. Guantanamo detention camps could use some work but overall serve their purpose well.
Anyway, you misread my post. I said those countries “have their own terrible human rights policies”, implying very well that I know we have troubles, but dont think the BRICS countries are any better than the US.
Remember, those BRICS countries are NOT friends at all, and they have their own terrible human rights policies, and they dont sit around campfires singing Kumbaya like Biden and Obama. No, they are plotting total world domination 24/7 and they will turn on each other in a bloody heartbeat. Don't pretend otherwise.
You must be European? Your people invented institutionalized torture and the death penalty, both of which were widely used across Europe for millenia. Your lot got soft but don't let your recent EU policies cloud your history.
Nothing wrong with the death penalty at all. In fact, we should use it a lot more. Guantanamo detention camps could use some work but overall serve their purpose well.
sorry I can't follow the logic.
Please let me know if I understand it correctly
BRICS countries are bad (NOT friends at all, and they have their own terrible human rights policies)
USA are good (they sit around campfires singing Kumbaya like Biden and Obama, death penalty should be applied more, Guantanamo detention camp is great)
Europeans can't say a word because Julius Caesar conquered all of Gaul
“Messages aiming at stating political or religious views or controversial historic interpretations are not authorized.”
Anyway, you misread my post. I said those countries “have their own terrible human rights policies”, implying very well that I know we have troubles, but dont think the BRICS countries are any better than the US.
Bad on me if I misread your post, I apologise. I agree with you Brics, USA and European human rights policies can be improved and I can't think about a single country leading the pack with perfect human rights policies
“Messages aiming at stating political or religious views or controversial historic interpretations are not authorized.”
Just when you think silver has gone up as high as it can, it climbs another couple of dollars. It was NZ$110 an ounce yesterday, today it's hovering around NZ$113 an ounce
India’s bold move to recognize silver as banking collateral at a 10-to-1 gold-silver ratio catapults silver into the monetary spotlight-reshaping global finance.
The measure limits collateral to physical holdings - excluding ETFs, coins exceeding certain weights, and non-jewelry bullion
Just when you think silver has gone up as high as it can, it climbs another couple of dollars. It was NZ$110 an ounce yesterday, today it's hovering around NZ$113 an ounce
Peaked at $116 and still at $114. I upgraded all my silver coins to be priced at least at $115 per ounce. My 4 and a bit kg of builk silver went from $5.2k in Jan this year to $11.1k yesterday.
All my surplus sterling halfcrowns are valued at $45 each and even US dimes are at $8 a pop. Blame our worthless peso.
I forecast seeing a $10,000 note with Billy T James as the Tainuia kid being issued by 2035 and it can't even buy a loaf of bread at this rate.
I love coins. Especially silver, gold and anything really old.
Member of the Royal Numismatic Society of New Zealand and the Auckland Numismatic Society
Just when you think silver has gone up as high as it can, it climbs another couple of dollars. It was NZ$110 an ounce yesterday, today it's hovering around NZ$113 an ounce
Peaked at $116 and still at $114. I upgraded all my silver coins to be priced at least at $115 per ounce. My 4 and a bit kg of builk silver went from $5.2k in Jan this year to $11.1k yesterday.
All my surplus sterling halfcrowns are valued at $45 each and even US dimes are at $8 a pop. Blame our worthless peso.
I forecast seeing a $10,000 note with Billy T James as the Tainuia kid being issued by 2035 and it can't even buy a loaf of bread at this rate.
Good for our exporters though, has to be good for our agricultural based economy
I'm not an economist by any means, but try to keep up with events. It's my feeling that the dramatic increase in gold is partly due to quiet buying by the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, Saudi Arabia, and now several others). I believe their goal is to replace the global dominance of the petro-dollar with a currency backed by gold.
It's also my belief that the price of silver has been artificially manipulated to keep it low; it being the most important strategic metal. I think that eventually a more balanced GSR (gold to silver ratio) will emerge. I last bought silver about a month ago at $41.10. I would like to buy more, but will wait for the price to stabilize over several weeks.
South africa is the fifth member of founding members
I imagine this is not good news for a certain president. If the information is reliable, it looks like the new currency is called a Unit, and backed by 40% gold.
Here is 100 years of silver adjusted for inflation…
Looks like the spike may still have room upwards before the record falls 🤣😅😱
Looks like the Depression and the period around 2001 - 2005 (The 2000s boom) it was very cheap and affordable. If anything it even shows the 2011 spike worse, but sure this graph stops somewhere around when the silver price hit $50 or $60 - its now at $85.
This pile of coins contained a whole pound of ASW and I thought it was super expensive when I paid $440 for it in June 2020
Now I would be paying at least $1,800.
I love coins. Especially silver, gold and anything really old.
Member of the Royal Numismatic Society of New Zealand and the Auckland Numismatic Society
Silver has now hit $90US or NZ $157 an ounce, when will this insanity end.
A sterling silver halfcrown has $62 NZ of silver in it, they were $20 coins for years up to 2023.
A dime has $11 NZ pesos worth of silver in it - just crazy.
A Morgan dollar has US $70 worth of silver in it. No more $29 Morgans for a while.
I love coins. Especially silver, gold and anything really old.
Member of the Royal Numismatic Society of New Zealand and the Auckland Numismatic Society
Gold now at $4628 USD and silver blasted into 90s at $91.58
That means the Gold silver ratio is around 51, in June last year it was 102.
I love coins. Especially silver, gold and anything really old.
Member of the Royal Numismatic Society of New Zealand and the Auckland Numismatic Society
I think 50 -70 is a good place, historically. hopefully it will stabilize or have some testing , but then lordy, anything could happen, and the shortage is real.
Jamais l'or n'a perdu la plus petite occasion de se montrer stupide. -Balzac
I think 50 -70 is a good place, historically. hopefully it will stabilize or have some testing , but then lordy, anything could happen, and the shortage is real.
It's an actual possibility the gold-silver ratio will go even lower because silver pricing is going crazy right now, but i am no financial genie and can be wrong
