Banknote inflation

Hi everyone, always wanted to ask seasoned banknote dealers: by how much do prices increase on average every year in the past, say, decade and did this accelerate post 2022 global interest hikes? Really appreciate your thoughts!

IMO

I do not believe anyone can answer this with one sentence, except by saying 'Supply and Demand'.

The amount of availability in the market will determine the selling price of the note. Whilst many notes are getting very expensive due to scarcity, there are also many around that they are still very cheap after so many years. For example have a look at the Indonesia 1964 series:

N#202984

You can get the full set (1 sen to 50 sen) for a dollar or 2. There are more notes but too lazy to list them here.

On the other hand, you also find some notes hoarded by collectors/dealers that push the price up the roof. For example

N#210906 - 10 kip unissued

N#210916 - 1000 kip unissued

According to my very old catalogue, the listed prices were $600 and $800 respectively. Today, you will find them selling at a very reasonable price. BTW, I do not believe you can buy them as listed on this site.

In terms of your question regarding global interest hikes. That depends on your own circumstance. If you have a steady job or are self employed and doing well and without a mortgage, then you are in heaven as you will have less competition from those collectors that are having a huge mortgage to service.  Just buy, buy, and buy😂

Thanks!
just a bit confused: the 10 Kip note you refer to, is it p10 or p15?
the linked one (p15) seems to be selling at $20-30…

P15. 

P10 was a cheap note. The woman depicted on the note was the wife of a French, who designed this note (I was told).

I'm not a dealer but I have been active in the hobby for the last 25 years & started 25 years before that.  I feel that there's just too many factors to consider before you can make one general assumption on banknote inflation so @ahkai boiled-down ‘Supply and Demand’ is a fair assessment. But I also think its a loaded question with a lot of other variables to consider too.

I think you have to also consider which markets & what nations/series you're considering. If you're looking at specific rarities from Canada, I can say the Charlton catalogue Book Values (BV) & pricing tables are surprisingly flat.  I just picked up a catalogue in December of last year (2025 edition) & was surprised how low all the first 3 series were (with just minor bumps on the high end of UNC).  Compared to my older catalogues I saw a lot of decreases in BV for a lot of the later series too (really disappointing).  The book tends to be extremely conservative for fear of raising prices artificially (allowing the market to decide but not allow any 1-off sales/bidding wars to influence their figures). It's a tough job to provide trending prices on collectibles but these guys (like better certifiers) tend to be ultra conservative. So, if you were to ask me about Bank of Canada notes I'd say there's been zero inflation (& price decreases). I hardly saw the pricing tables go up at all even though there was absolutely inflated prices realized on a lot of auction platforms (but I'm not on the Charlton pricing panel so my opinion doesn't count). Sometimes the book doesn't get it right but consumers have to feel confident in the economy before they part with a lot of money for collectibles & that's not happening in Canada at the moment.

Whenever I go into a coin shop all the prices seem up to me (again this is just my opinion).  I have seen big bumps for a lot of the typical World favourites (Bermuda, Rhodesia, Palestine & other colonial issues) but a lot of the run-of-the mill series remain flat (IMO).  One thing I noticed at the coin show I attended this past December (2024) was a real lack of quality notes for sale. Most of their certified stuff wasn't EPQ (nor “Original”) so that was a big turn-off for me. 

So I would say that if you're talking “brick & mortar” shops (or coin shows) I'd say inflation has hit but nothing like groceries. 

If you're talking HA, Spinks or Stacks & Bowers, then again, depends on what's been offered (yes a little inflation but no big deal). Generally, there's been some big bumps & little bumps, but when you think how rare some of these nation's series are (especially in comparison to some US Large sized series which are often plentiful) some of the prices realized at auction are a down-right bargain.  Overall, online prices have increased slightly (like on eBay) but I'm not sure if they're that bad considering general inflation in the real world (& in some cases a lot of prices remain flat if you know where to look).

ahkai

P15. 

 

P10 was a cheap note. The woman depicted on the note was the wife of a French, who designed this note (I was told).

That was me. She is the second wife of Marc Lequay, a French diplomat and artist. He also did some of Laos stamps. They are beautiful.

ThePoet

ahkai

P15. 

 

P10 was a cheap note. The woman depicted on the note was the wife of a French, who designed this note (I was told).

That was me. She is the second wife of Marc Lequay, a French diplomat and artist. He also did some of Laos stamps. They are beautiful.

😁